C.S.I. Miami, a.k.a. Super Bowl XLIV

I had a guy in my cab yesterday that worked in forensic accounting. For those of you who don't know what that is (like me before I picked him up @ Grand Central) what these guys do is find the hidden income of wealthy individuals or corporations by examining their books and id'ing certain trouble signs. The way he explained it certain disclosures on a companies books indicate an attempt to cover up money by employing various obstruction tactics. It's kinda like body language experts who can tell a person is lying by the way their eyes look to the left when they're talking. Forensic accountants are masters at the body language of accounting. This guy worked on ENRON and he is now involved in determining who gets paid out in the Bernie Madoff sweepstakes. Fascinating conversation but based on the tip it's safe to say he hasn't kept too much of the hidden money for himself.

Luckily I won't need it this week because after a playoff run in which I went 9-1 for all of you unappreciative assbags (hello talk radio host Mike Bower) I have done the forensic accounting of SUPER BOWL XLIV and found out where the money is being hidden. Literally hidden! AND NOT JUST IN THIS GAME BUT IN EVERY SUPER BOWL TO COME!!! I'm serious.

Anyone that has ever heard me talk about gambling on the radio, or at a little league game or a dance recital for that matter knows that I am a huge proponent of betting every game for the same amount of money. It is the single most important reason that I have come out ahead every football season since 1993. The reason I find this so important is because if you commit to bet every game equally it takes alot of the emotion out of the process and decreases the chances of you going on TILT after a tough loss and making a bunch of dumb bets. (TILT the state of mind, not the Michael Madsen vehicle on ESPN)

Placing equal bets also accentuates a winning record by ensuring that you get paid. Sadly, to most people who bet football, having a winning record rarely equates to making money. Think about it. How many times have you gone 5-2- in a weekend and lost money because you bet the five wins for a hundo and the two losses for a nickel and a dime. It's maddening!!! YOU HAVE TO BET THEM ALL THE SAME. People who bet in varying increments are a bookies dream!!! Even if it works for you on a small sample of games over the course of time "betting the big game" has a way turning your bank roll into the last shot of Steve Buscemi in Fargo. I cannot stress this enough. If you are seriously trying to gamble and come out ahead you must bet them all the same.
The Super Bowl is no different. If you're gonna bet it every year you have to employ the same type of strategy. Mine, without further ado, is this. BET THE UNDERDOG IN THE SUPER BOWL TO WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT EVERY SINGLE YEAR FOR THE REST OF MY LIFE. THAT'S RIGHT, FORGET THE SPREAD AND BET THE SAINTS +180 TO WIN THE GAME!!! A FIVE HUNDRED DOLLAR BET WILL PAY YOU NINE HUNDRED AMERICAN.

Alot of people will want to know why. Is it the limited mobility of Freeney, the remember me hits of the Saints D? Maybe someone has finally found a way to confuse Peyton Manning by changing the name of the Stadium every other posession. Nope it's bigger than all that. It's not about pass rushers, or average starting field position it's about FORENSIC ACCOUNTING.

I know at first it sounds highly implausible that their could be money hidden on the most heavily bet game in the universe but about 10 years ago I was studying the angles of Super Bowl XXXIII and looking at some of the historic trends in the game and I had a Robert Langdon eureka moment straight out of a Dan Brown Novel. What followed was the birth of a betting strategy that would result in 3 wins, 7 losses, but a net profit of $2500. I know this sounds impossible but I'll explain.

Heres the deal: the team favored to win the SuperBowl has won the game 32 times in 43 tries (75%) so on the surface it would seem simple to bet the favorite on the money line every single year because you're going to win 75% of the time. But if you look a little deeper you'll see the trouble signs.

Although favorites win the Super Bowl (without the spread) 75% of the time they are usually doing so at a money line that is extremely high. (avg. price for the 43 favorites is around -500 which means for every hundred you win on a Super Bowl favorite, you lose five!! This year the Colts are laying -210 which means a hundred on the colts will cost you 210 if you lose. (It's really not bad when you consider a hundred on the COLTS in Super Bowl III would have lost you $1600!!!!!) If you bet the Saints for a hundo it would pay you 180. If you lost it you'd only be out that same hundo and therein lies the value.

Since Super Bowl I betting the underdog on the money line for five hundred a game would give you a won lost record of 11 wins and 32 losses but you'd be up eleven thousand five hundred dollars. Don't get me wrong there'd be a ton of games you didn't like ('94 Chargers over the Niners comes to mind) but if you hold your nose and bet the dog every year you will get paid. But you've gotta have discipline because you're going to lose alot more than you win. Going into this weekend the dog in the Super Bowl wins the game outright slightly better than once every 4 years. But at an average payout of $2500 per win the underdog money line strategy will have you up two units every five years. I know this is boring but boring people with tons of poise are the only ones making money.

Often times the guy you HEAR CELEBRATING at the Borgata on Saturday night because he's winning five dime black jack hands is often the same guy you see sunday morning betting 20 bucks a hand because the excitement made it impossible to walk away and now it's all gone. It truly is the worst gambling feeling in the world. I'm sure some of you have been there, tipping the waitress a hundred a round, paying people to hit their 16 because you plan on doubling down, lost behind stacks of chips that look like the New York City Skyline. But rather than walking away you keep playing and now you have the Philadelphia Skyline which eventually becomes the Columbus Ohio skyline and then alas, Sioux City. Keep the emotion out of the process and place the boring bet. Believe me I KNOW how boring this sounds but it's not nearly as boring as Sioux City.

------------As far as betting the game on an individual basis I think the Colts are going to destroy them for some reason. The only thing scaring me is that everybody I talk to feels the same way. If I was going one game I would lay the 210 and bet the Colts simply to win the game. Unfortunately or fortunately I have pretty good discipline so I will stick to the money line strategy that I've employed since the year 2000. (3-7, up $2500).